LAHORE:The ‘first epidemiological susceptibilities and pandemic outbreak assessment report’ has warned of potential upsurge of leptospirosis in the wake of post-floods situation in the country.
Leptospirosis is an infectious disease, caused by leptospira and transmitted to humans from domestic animals, and characterised by jaundice and fever, according to a press release issued by SAARC-ASEAN Post-Doctoral Academia [Colombo], on Thursday.
The report, named Aurangzeb Hafi’s DESPO Appraisal, warns of the worsening situation in the conjoint ‘hexa-effect aftermath’ of the high tides from the heavy monsoon rains of 2022.
The torrential tides of floods that have already swamped large parts of the country, carried high epidemics along with them; putting the children and the disabled persons at high risks. These risks may include life-long ailments, DESPO’s Principal Investigator (P.I.) Prof. Aurangzeb Hafi has notified to the UN agencies, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the authorities concerned in the flood-affected areas.
According to DESPO appraisal, “considerable indicators suggest potential upsurge of leptospirosis, that the country is prone to, for the first time at a substantial extent, on post-disastrous scenes in the recent history of natural catastrophes.”
Malnutrition and mal-absorption rates in children, particularly those in temporary camps, is becoming thrice the emergency threshold, measured as per the UN’s WFP-WHO laid parameters, cautions DESPO-Flood-2022.
The report says parts of the country now stand on verge of bearing the consequential outbreaks of the tetra-effect aftermath of 2022’s floods, in terms of severe health problems as well as socio-economic issues.
According to the parameters, adopted in ACAPS Summary Sheet of Global Emergency, the DESPO Disaster Impact Measurement System (DIMS), as well as in view of the updated data analysis of the floods of 2022, all of the core-indicators suggest that Pakistan certainly bears the emergency zone’s hallmarks.
“The UN agencies, the rights groups and others are required to remain vigilant in order to save the precious lives of the desperate and lonely children,” compels DESPO.
The hexa-effect disaster is now beginning to unfold, as the days pass and the severity of the situation emerges.
In many hard-hit areas of Pakistan, poorly maintained sewers are overflowing, carrying along heavy toxins and remnant industrial waste, thus contaminating the drinking water supplies. The floodwater in many areas bears high toxicity concentrations, and strong indications suggest the presence of arsenic, along with a considerable number of other toxins, coming from industrial sewers. And if the situation prevails for another 10-15 days, it would be emerging as a host to a number of hazardous ailments, especially among pregnant women and small children.
The present disaster holds fast strong potentiality to carry forth a considerable number of leptospirosis, leading to severe pulmonary haemorrhage syndrome (PHS), lymphocytic chorio-meningitis (LCMV), acute cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome.
Aurangzeb Hafi’s DESPO alert warns of more cases bearing the disease-pattern in near future. Major indicators have been identified, suggesting the strong potential of pandemic outbreaks such as cholera and diarrheal diseases that are directly linked to cell mediated immunity (CMI), mal-nutrition and mal-absorption.
Impaired absorption of water, electrolytes and minerals causes impaired formation of Micelle + C complex, which in turn results in multiple mal-absorption complications. The presence of either both types of deficiencies, or any one of the above mentioned factors can seriously affect the C.M.I. (cell mediated immunity) leading to pathological complications in small babies.
There are heightened concerns about the risk of outbreaks of infectious diseases such as water-borne diseases, vector-borne diseases and air-borne diseases.
In addition, there are delicate apprehensions about acute respiratory infections in areas where water and sanitation hygiene (WASH) systems have been disrupted. Malnutrition rates have become thrice the emergency threshold in hard-hit zones.
DESPO alert points out some pressing concerns. It urges for an immediate provision of safe drinkable water, emergency hygiene-kits and secure sanitation. The disabled should be compassionately dealt with and taken care of. Extraordinary attention must be paid to target the displaced (children and pregnant women especially). The management of post-trauma cases and restoration of disrupted primary healthcare services should be prioritised. An overall rescue plus response operation in all hard-hit zones is needed on a priority basis.
Professor Dr. Aurangzeb Hafi is a polymath arch-researcher, who was recognised as the most impactful phenomenological researcher of two decades, and henceforward his name was placed in Top-10 persons of the 21st century. He has long been working for epidemiological risk assessments and pandemic outbreaks’ threat-indication in disastrous emergencies and cataclysmic situations, particularly, in the subject-matters concerning the health consequences directly affecting the disabled, the children under 5 and pregnant women.
Prof. Hafi was the prime investigatory head of the projects concerning the disabled population of refugee camps in Sri Lanka, following the Asian Tsunami of 2004.