Islamabad: Pakistan’s food security is facing increasing pressure from climate change as rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, floods and water shortages threaten the productivity of major crops.
There is scientific projections warning of significant declines in wheat and rice yields in coming decades.
Climate assessments indicate that Pakistan’s average temperature is rising faster than the global average, increasing risks to agriculture, which remains the backbone of the country’s economy and rural livelihoods.
‘Climate change has moved from being an environmental concern to a national food security challenge. The rising frequency of heatwaves, floods and droughts is disrupting crop cycles, reducing productivity and increasing pressure on Pakistan’s already stressed water resources,’ said Mohammad Saleem Shaikh, Media Spokesperson for the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination and Climate Policy Advocacy Expert.
He said Pakistan needed to urgently transition towards climate-smart agriculture, combining scientific research, resilient crop varieties, efficient irrigation systems and improved farming practices.
‘Every degree of warming translates into greater risks for our farmers, food supplies and economy. Adaptation can no longer remain a future agenda; it must become an immediate national priority,’ Shaikh added.
Studies by the Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), the Ministry’s research institution, project that Pakistan’s average temperature increase could exceed the global average, with warming potentially rising by about one degree Celsius by the end of this century.
The GCISC crop simulation models indicate that wheat yields could decline by 3.4 to 12.5 per cent in semi-arid irrigated regions, including Faisalabad and Sheikhupura, while arid regions such as Hyderabad, Badin, Bahawalpur and Multan could face yield reductions ranging between 3.8 and 14.5 per cent under future climate scenarios.
Rain-fed wheat production in parts of the Potohar region, including Chakwal, could witness around 16 per cent decline in productivity towards the end of the century.
‘Wheat is central to Pakistan’s food security. Any decline in its productivity will directly affect millions of households, particularly vulnerable communities dependent on affordable staple foods,’ Shaikh said.
Rice production is also projected to face serious challenges. GCISC simulations suggest that rice yields could decline by
12 to 22 per cent across major rice-growing areas of Pakistan by the end of this century due to rising temperatures and changing climate conditions.
A recent study published in Scientific Reports highlighted that warming trends in semi-arid Pakistan are already affecting wheat development stages and shortening growing periods, underlining the need for urgent adaptation measures.
‘Shorter growing seasons caused by rising temperatures can significantly affect crop maturity and productivity.
Farmers will need access to climate-resilient seeds, updated agricultural advisories and improved water management systems to cope with these emerging challenges,’ Shaikh said.
Pakistan’s agricultural vulnerability is further intensified by growing water insecurity. Agriculture consumes the largest share of the country’s freshwater resources, while climate change is increasing crop water requirements through higher evaporation and heat stress.
‘The climate crisis is creating a dangerous imbalance, crops need more water because of rising temperatures, but water availability is becoming increasingly uncertain. Without major reforms in water conservation and irrigation efficiency, agricultural sustainability will remain at risk,’ Shaikh warned.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has identified agriculture as one of Pakistan’s sectors most vulnerable to climate change, warning that rising temperatures, floods and changing rainfall patterns could significantly affect agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods.
ADB assessments have projected that temperature increases could contribute to agricultural yield losses, including declines in wheat and rice productivity in future decades, highlighting the urgent need for climate-resilient agriculture.
The World Bank has also highlighted climate-related threats to Pakistan’s agricultural sector, noting that extreme weather events have already affected crop yields, livestock and irrigation infrastructure.
The bank has supported climate-smart agriculture initiatives aimed at improving water efficiency and strengthening farmers’ resilience.
Saleem Shaikh said Pakistan must accelerate adoption of drought-resistant and heat-tolerant crop varieties, precision irrigation, rainwater harvesting, improved weather forecasting services and direct seeding technologies.
‘Food security in the era of climate change will depend on how effectively we integrate science into farming decisions.
Farmers need timely climate information, resilient technologies and institutional support to protect their livelihoods,’ he said.
Agriculture contributes around one-fourth of Pakistan’s GDP and provides employment to a significant share of the country’s workforce, making climate resilience in the sector critical for economic stability.
‘Protecting agriculture from climate change requires a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach. Climate adaptation must become a central pillar of Pakistan’s economic planning because food security, water security and climate security are deeply interconnected,’ Shaikh emphasised.
