Islamabad: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast near-normal rainfall across Gilgit-Baltistan and adjoining parts of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during the current monsoon season, while warning that above-normal temperatures could accelerate snow and glacier melt, increasing the risk of localized flooding and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).
According to the PMD’s seasonal outlook for Pakistan’s Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region, the forecast is broadly consistent with assessments issued by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC), the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), and the 34th Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-34), all of which indicate a tendency toward near-normal precipitation across parts of the northwestern HKH region.
The department said seasonal temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most parts of the HKH region, with relatively larger positive temperature departures likely over eastern Gilgit-Baltistan and adjoining areas.
The warmer conditions are expected to accelerate seasonal snow and glacier melt, contributing to enhanced river flows during the monsoon period.
The PMD said the anticipated near-normal rainfall is expected to support water availability and sustain river inflows originating from the northern mountain catchments.
However, it cautioned that enhanced rainfall combined with accelerated snow and glacier melt may increase river discharges and elevate the risk of localized flooding in vulnerable valleys.
It warned that intense short-duration rainfall events could trigger flash floods, landslides, debris flows and slope failures, particularly in mountainous terrain.
The department further noted that above-normal temperatures may increase runoff and heighten glacier-related hazards, including the possibility of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in vulnerable high-altitude catchments.
The PMD advised communities living near rivers, streams, steep slopes and glacial valleys to remain vigilant and strictly follow weather and flood advisories issued by the relevant authorities throughout the monsoon season.
Overall, the department said the 2026 monsoon season is expected to provide generally favourable moisture conditions across Pakistan’s HKH region.
However, it emphasized that above-normal temperatures and the possibility of localized heavy rainfall events could increase hydro-meteorological hazards, highlighting the need for continued preparedness and close monitoring of weather and flood forecasts.